Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
| Money | MRST -480 UMES +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +24 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -19.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -13.6 (+10.4) | 134.8 (-6.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -17.0 (+7.0) | 133.1 (-5.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -16.0 (+8.0) | 133.0 (-5.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -16.1 (+7.9) | 133.0 (-5.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2022 | UMES 70 – 59 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 4-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-8 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.2 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#143) | -13.2 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#115) | -1.20 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#147) | -1.65 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#162) | 0.446 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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