Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | USM +100 PFW +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +12 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | USM -14.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -11.1 (+0.9) | 130.3 (-2.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -8.6 (+3.4) | 133.0 (-5.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -10.0 (+2.0) | 129.6 (-1.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -10.1 (+1.9) | 128.7 (-0.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-0 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#18) | -0.8 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#11) | 0.65 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.49 (#17) | 0.66 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#32) | 0.563 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 36.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.4% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 80.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 10.1% |
Game Analysis
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