Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | DREX -110 FGCU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +8 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -2.6 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -1.5 (-6.5) | 129.1 (-3.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -1.0 (-7.0) | 132.0 (-6.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -0.9 (-7.1) | 130.0 (-4.0) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -1.1 (-6.9) | 132.3 (-6.3) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#158) | 3.7 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#188) | 0.71 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#155) | 0.93 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#243) | 0.570 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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