Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -120 ACU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +11 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -8.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -6.8 (+4.2) | 134.4 (+6.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -5.7 (+5.3) | 133.0 (+8.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -5.0 (+6.0) | 132.8 (+8.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -5.5 (+5.5) | 134.2 (+6.8) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 9-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#174) | -8.3 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#52) | -1.40 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#73) | -2.26 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#74) | 0.335 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 26.6% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 26.6% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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