Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -110 CREI +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +3 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | CREI -3.8 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+43.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -2.2 (-0.8) | 139.6 (+37.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -2.7 (-0.3) | 138.9 (+38.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -1.9 (-1.1) | 136.4 (+40.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -0.5 (-2.5) | 135.3 (+41.7) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#42) | 13.1 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#67) | 2.71 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#66) | 3.94 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#70) | 0.668 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 58.8% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.8% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 82.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 7.4% |
Game Analysis
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