Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -110 AKR +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +4 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -8.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -4.6 (-0.6) | 131.3 (-11.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -3.7 (+0.3) | 131.9 (-11.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -5.4 (-1.4) | 132.1 (-12.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -4.3 (-0.3) | 132.8 (-12.8) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#57) | -0.5 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#27) | 1.64 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.75 (#31) | 2.45 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.717 (#13) | 0.642 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 39.0% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.8% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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