Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | CMU -110 CSUN +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CMU +16 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | CSUN -1.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUN -1.8 (+17.8) | 139.2 (+8.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUN -0.0 (+16.0) | 136.4 (+11.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUN -1.0 (+17.0) | 137.0 (+11.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUN -0.6 (+16.6) | 138.3 (+9.7) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-16 |
| Home | 6-8 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-12 | 0-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 61.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#228) | -1.2 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#287) | -1.98 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#291) | -3.03 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#284) | 0.324 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 24.5% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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