Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -163 TNST +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -2.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -1.0 (+4.0) | 147.1 (+1.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -1.6 (+3.4) | 145.6 (+3.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -1.0 (+4.0) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -1.1 (+3.9) | 144.5 (+4.5) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#156) | -1.7 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#92) | 0.40 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#113) | -0.20 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#37) | 0.393 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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