Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -275 USI +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -1.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -1.9 (+12.1) | 149.2 (-3.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -3.6 (+10.4) | 146.0 (-0.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -2.4 (+11.6) | 146.7 (-0.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -1.5 (+12.5) | 148.5 (-2.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#187) | 4.9 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#278) | 1.06 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#263) | 1.70 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.364 (#318) | 0.671 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 41.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.