Betting Lines
| Spread | WRST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UCR +120 WRST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -3.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -1.2 (+3.8) | 152.2 (-17.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -2.6 (+2.4) | 150.1 (-15.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -1.4 (+3.6) | 151.9 (-16.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -0.8 (+4.2) | 152.5 (-17.5) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 9-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#174) | -2.8 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#52) | 0.18 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#73) | 0.05 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#74) | 0.520 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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