Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | PAC -250 MSM +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +4 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | PAC -12.6 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.5 (-34.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -10.7 (-14.7) | 158.4 (-24.4) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -6.4 (-10.4) | 153.8 (-19.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -10.3 (-14.3) | 157.7 (-23.7) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -11.0 (-15.0) | 159.0 (-25.0) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-10 | 5-9 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 63.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#82) | 0.6 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#129) | -0.37 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#121) | -1.36 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#195) | 0.470 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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