Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | LAF +240 PENN -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +6 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -5.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -2.9 (-8.9) | 132.5 (+9.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -0.5 (-6.5) | 129.9 (+12.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -2.1 (-8.1) | 130.3 (+11.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -3.4 (-9.4) | 133.2 (+8.8) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2025 | PENN 74 – 72 LAF |
| Nov 13, 2024 | LAF 65 – 63 PENN |
| Nov 24, 2023 | PENN 74 – 72 LAF |
| Nov 17, 2021 | PENN 85 – 57 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-23 | 17-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-5 |
| Home | 5-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-16 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#242) | -1.5 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#309) | 1.28 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.13 (#325) | 2.58 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#278) | 0.614 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 12.2% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 12.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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