Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Under |
| Money | PENN -430 LAF +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +28 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -14.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -7.7 (+20.3) | 157.1 (-15.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | PENN -6.1 (+21.9) | 151.1 (-9.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | PENN -7.8 (+20.2) | 157.9 (-15.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -8.4 (+19.6) | 158.8 (-16.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2025 | PENN 74 – 72 LAF |
| Nov 13, 2024 | LAF 65 – 63 PENN |
| Nov 24, 2023 | PENN 74 – 72 LAF |
| Nov 23, 2022 | PENN 74 – 68 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-3 | 6-9 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#261) | -7.5 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#132) | -0.84 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#153) | -0.83 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#232) | 0.562 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 13.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 59.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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