Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | PENN -355 LAF +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -13.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -10.7 (-8.7) | 143.2 (+2.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -9.1 (-7.1) | 144.9 (+1.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -10.0 (-8.0) | 144.3 (+1.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -10.9 (-8.9) | 142.3 (+3.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2024 | LAF 65 – 63 PENN |
| Nov 24, 2023 | PENN 74 – 72 LAF |
| Nov 23, 2022 | PENN 74 – 68 LAF |
| Nov 17, 2021 | PENN 85 – 57 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-2 | 6-10 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#240) | -12.7 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#183) | -2.97 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#186) | -4.24 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#148) | 0.338 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.6% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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