Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | LAF +125 PENN -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +2 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -14.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -5.6 (-3.6) | 135.0 (-7.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -3.4 (-1.4) | 140.0 (-12.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -4.0 (-2.0) | 135.8 (-7.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -4.6 (-2.6) | 134.2 (-6.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2025 | PENN 74 – 72 LAF |
| Nov 24, 2023 | PENN 74 – 72 LAF |
| Nov 23, 2022 | PENN 74 – 68 LAF |
| Nov 17, 2021 | PENN 85 – 57 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 5-8 |
| Away | 3-14 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#239) | -6.4 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#308) | 1.72 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#310) | 1.74 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#220) | 0.458 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 17.7% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 12.5% | 41.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 57.6% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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