I like bread and butter. I like toast and jam. "Bread and Butter" - The Newbeats
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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52–16 on winners spread MAE 9.3 68 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Illinois @ Kansas State -6.1 133.2 24% 72–64 ✓
Nevada @ George Mason +8.8 148.3 80% 88–69 ✗
Hartford @ Merrimack +5.6 131.0 58% 60–75 ✓
Lipscomb @ Tennessee Tech +1.5 143.8 52% 77–88 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ South Carolina State -0.4 137.6 37% 82–78 ✓
American University @ UMBC +7.4 143.2 76% 67–98 ✓
Louisiana @ Marshall +4.9 140.1 65% 79–93 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Maine +4.3 136.8 50% 64–56 ✗
Jackson State @ Indiana +22.6 136.1 89% 35–70 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ St. John's +26.2 155.2 90% 70–76 ✓
Wofford @ South Carolina +5.6 135.2 70% 74–85 ✓
Columbia @ Lehigh +3.8 144.8 68% 72–79 ✓
UNC Asheville @ North Carolina +10.9 153.3 85% 53–72 ✓
Rhode Island @ Florida Gulf Coast +0.9 140.1 49% 66–67 ✓
Long Island University @ Saint Peter's +18.5 143.7 90% 62–64 ✓
Central Michigan @ Bellarmine +5.3 146.5 75% 69–76 ✓
Virginia @ Providence +5.2 134.1 60% 58–40 ✗
Delaware @ Fordham +0.7 149.0 54% 81–71 ✗
Oregon @ Saint Mary's +2.5 140.0 58% 50–62 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Valparaiso -0.9 134.6 53% 64–61 ✓
Missouri State @ East Tennessee State -2.7 142.9 34% 76–77 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UT Rio Grande Valley -8.6 150.2 24% 67–72 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Wake Forest +19.9 147.9 88% 61–92 ✓
Omaha @ Texas Tech +22.5 143.2 89% 40–96 ✓
Illinois State @ Saint Louis +10.2 157.1 80% 76–82 ✓
Tennessee State @ Nebraska +14.8 144.2 87% 73–79 ✓
Cincinnati @ Arkansas -4.4 141.6 36% 67–73 ✗
Washington @ South Dakota State +8.3 154.3 74% 87–76 ✗
Gonzaga @ UCLA -5.4 156.3 25% 83–63 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Stanford +6.7 132.8 71% 65–79 ✓
Northern Colorado @ San José State +1.4 137.6 60% 74–75 ✓
Portland @ Portland State +1.3 137.4 59% 69–54 ✗
UC Davis @ Sacramento State -2.2 138.4 42% 63–75 ✗
Akron @ Evansville -0.8 124.8 46% 69–60 ✓
Milwaukee @ Yale +6.6 140.9 76% 56–69 ✓
North Dakota @ Florida International +13.0 137.9 85% 56–65 ✓
Long Beach State @ Wright State +0.9 158.1 53% 85–76 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ UAlbany +3.6 124.4 77% 62–64 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Michigan State -1.1 148.4 44% 61–63 ✗
Rider @ Bucknell -1.4 145.6 43% 85–79 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Campbell +9.9 130.7 76% 55–66 ✓
App State @ Vermont +3.9 123.7 66% 63–65 ✓
Southern Utah @ Bowling Green -1.4 149.8 43% 87–73 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ NJIT +9.8 138.8 82% 54–62 ✓
Central Arkansas @ LSU New Orleans +11.2 146.3 87% 63–90 ✓
Coppin State @ Canisius +9.7 138.2 77% 75–76 ✓
Stony Brook @ Fairfield +13.6 139.6 86% 78–83 ✓
Houston @ Oregon -7.6 135.0 25% 78–49 ✓
UConn @ Auburn -4.9 143.3 28% 115–109 ✓
Drexel @ Jacksonville State -2.0 136.4 47% 64–72 ✗
Murray State @ James Madison -5.7 130.4 24% 74–62 ✓
Idaho @ Cal Poly +6.8 135.7 83% 63–67 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Mercer -1.9 134.9 43% 82–58 ✓
Lamar @ UTSA +2.3 144.4 49% 73–79 ✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Michigan +2.3 149.6 57% 68–72 ✓
Saint Francis @ Cornell +10.4 154.4 82% 80–93 ✓
VMI @ Presbyterian -1.5 137.8 43% 54–59 ✗
Denver @ Air Force +8.8 128.9 77% 65–66 ✓
Fordham @ Rice -0.0 149.7 45% 84–74 ✓
Wisconsin @ Saint Mary's -4.0 128.2 29% 61–55 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Western Kentucky +11.4 139.0 85% 62–88 ✓
William & Mary @ Radford +6.7 126.8 56% 54–67 ✓
VCU @ Syracuse +0.8 131.0 63% 67–55 ✗
Utah Valley @ Nicholls -5.6 140.4 26% 74–63 ✓
Valparaiso @ Tulane +2.5 138.7 56% 68–64 ✗
Missouri State @ George Washington -6.0 141.4 23% 72–54 ✓
Seton Hall @ California -14.4 137.7 12% 62–59 ✓
Buffalo @ Illinois State -6.8 160.2 28% 106–90 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.