What's the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking? "Stand and Deliver" - Adam and the Ants
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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45–14 on winners spread MAE 9.9 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UAlbany @ Kentucky +25.8 138.4 91% 61–86 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Eastern Kentucky +15.2 142.2 87% 43–82 ✓
Western Illinois @ Northern Kentucky -1.8 144.9 57% 69–67 ✓
Troy @ Florida Atlantic +4.8 149.5 69% 83–78 ✗
Lafayette @ Rutgers +19.1 138.2 89% 53–51 ✗
South Dakota State @ Nevada -7.2 158.2 25% 102–75 ✓
Hofstra @ Richmond +6.1 149.9 74% 68–81 ✓
Coppin State @ Cleveland State +9.9 134.6 79% 62–65 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Georgia Tech +21.5 151.6 90% 70–85 ✓
Virginia @ Georgia +0.7 135.7 52% 65–55 ✗
Harvard @ Siena -8.0 146.1 23% 69–72 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Ohio +16.5 142.5 88% 59–73 ✓
Delaware @ App State -1.6 144.3 42% 75–68 ✓
UCLA @ Bellarmine -17.5 155.1 12% 75–62 ✓
Colorado State @ Northeastern -1.5 139.2 38% 71–61 ✓
Charleston @ Oklahoma State +15.7 151.5 85% 66–96 ✓
Belmont @ LSU +14.2 153.7 85% 53–83 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Northern Arizona +8.9 149.5 76% 82–80 ✗
Long Beach State @ Missouri State +4.4 159.8 68% 66–92 ✓
Tarleton State @ North Dakota State +4.9 130.8 64% 53–54 ✓
Florida @ California -8.3 136.5 20% 80–60 ✓
Florida State @ Missouri -8.1 135.9 23% 81–58 ✓
Western Michigan @ Iowa +33.9 155.5 91% 61–109 ✓
The Citadel @ Duke +15.5 147.3 85% 81–107 ✓
Arkansas @ Kansas State -1.0 146.0 42% 72–64 ✓
Winthrop @ Washington State +25.4 154.5 90% 86–92 ✓
UC Riverside @ UTEP +10.3 140.8 80% 52–40 ✗
Kansas City @ Idaho State -4.0 132.6 33% 74–58 ✓
Wyoming @ Grand Canyon -0.8 133.0 30% 68–61 ✓
Morgan State @ San Francisco +18.6 150.8 89% 67–83 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Valparaiso -9.5 129.5 26% 70–78 ✗
George Mason @ Washington -10.4 140.0 24% 74–77 ✗
Providence @ Northwestern -1.1 143.3 51% 77–72 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Seattle U +15.0 151.0 87% 56–77 ✓
Chicago State @ Pacific +3.7 133.7 66% 58–74 ✓
Santa Clara @ TCU -1.9 146.9 43% 85–66 ✓
Gonzaga @ Central Michigan -19.1 149.8 13% 107–54 ✓
Utah Tech @ USC +28.9 152.6 91% 71–98 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Notre Dame -1.6 133.7 38% 62–59 ✓
Fresno State @ Pepperdine -1.8 137.7 35% 70–63 ✓
Vermont @ Evansville -6.7 130.4 27% 58–49 ✓
Wright State @ James Madison +7.3 142.4 78% 76–78 ✓
Southern Utah @ Yale +7.3 137.6 75% 88–85 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Rider -3.1 140.0 37% 60–54 ✓
App State @ Akron +0.7 124.0 59% 57–45 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Towson +8.6 143.5 79% 61–76 ✓
Texas A&M @ Butler -5.8 131.2 27% 57–50 ✓
Drexel @ Charlotte +1.3 149.9 56% 67–55 ✗
Long Beach State @ Murray State +5.0 146.1 73% 43–80 ✓
Milwaukee @ Bowling Green -3.2 141.7 40% 68–82 ✗
Bucknell @ Mercer +3.3 148.1 65% 68–78 ✓
Quinnipiac @ New Hampshire +11.8 141.5 83% 69–84 ✓
Wisconsin @ Houston +1.6 122.5 54% 65–63 ✗
Georgia @ Northwestern +6.6 142.9 80% 62–78 ✓
Oakland @ Rice -3.1 141.4 37% 76–73 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Liberty +2.6 131.7 65% 51–59 ✓
Tulane @ Toledo +1.9 147.8 58% 67–68 ✓
George Washington @ Kent State +2.6 135.2 59% 69–77 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Buffalo +5.9 154.7 75% 79–78 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.