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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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59–25 on winners spread MAE 9.8 84 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +10.3 137.4 83% 70–67 ✗
Portland @ Kent State +17.9 132.2 95% 57–76 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Davidson +15.1 156.2 92% 72–73 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Indiana +15.6 156.2 92% 57–76 ✓
Georgetown @ West Virginia +12.9 145.6 88% 60–73 ✓
Iona @ Sacred Heart +9.0 143.9 79% 59–83 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Marist +4.1 141.4 64% 50–53 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Rider +4.6 133.1 66% 72–67 ✗
Merrimack @ Canisius -5.1 135.4 32% 60–52 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Georgia State -0.3 153.5 49% 81–77 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ UAB +14.4 176.6 90% 66–95 ✓
North Texas @ High Point -4.6 126.5 34% 71–76 ✗
Illinois @ Northwestern -8.1 143.1 23% 66–70 ✗
Kansas State @ St. John's +13.6 155.6 89% 71–88 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Incarnate Word +8.7 149.3 78% 53–65 ✓
Syracuse @ Notre Dame +10.2 159.8 82% 64–69 ✓
Clemson @ Miami -7.9 149.7 24% 65–55 ✓
Boston College @ Wake Forest +5.4 125.5 69% 66–72 ✓
Princeton @ Furman +6.6 142.3 73% 63–69 ✓
Rutgers @ Ohio State +17.3 163.1 94% 66–80 ✓
Nebraska @ Michigan State +5.6 145.4 70% 52–89 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Massachusetts +3.8 165.1 64% 96–83 ✗
Providence @ Rhode Island +7.1 142.1 74% 63–69 ✓
South Florida @ Loyola Chicago +13.9 146.1 90% 72–74 ✓
UMBC @ Towson +11.5 143.3 85% 84–71 ✗
UAlbany @ Boston University +1.0 137.9 54% 74–80 ✓
Wright State @ Detroit Mercy -3.7 146.2 37% 80–72 ✓
Queens University @ VMI +5.2 141.5 68% 81–78 ✗
Wisconsin @ Marquette +11.1 153.0 84% 74–88 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech -14.7 138.4 9% 64–59 ✓
Georgia Tech @ North Carolina +20.2 170.7 97% 65–68 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Drexel +10.3 139.1 82% 47–60 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ North Carolina A&T -3.3 150.3 38% 67–55 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Gardner-Webb +11.9 150.1 86% 78–77 ✗
Marshall @ UNC Wilmington +6.5 144.4 72% 69–78 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Evansville -2.7 146.9 40% 79–65 ✓
Southern Utah @ Arizona +18.5 157.6 95% 66–102 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ West Georgia -0.4 140.1 49% 73–78 ✗
Navy @ NJIT +0.1 145.4 50% 64–69 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Delaware State -2.2 144.2 42% 77–80 ✗
Vermont @ Yale +15.1 142.3 92% 50–65 ✓
Iowa @ Michigan +9.7 153.7 81% 83–85 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Holy Cross -0.2 131.6 49% 69–56 ✓
Morgan State @ Bowling Green +12.2 151.6 87% 81–102 ✓
South Dakota @ Northern Arizona -3.3 167.2 38% 82–95 ✗
New Orleans @ Nicholls +10.8 148.0 84% 70–73 ✓
Lehigh @ Dayton +20.5 154.5 97% 62–86 ✓
Tulane @ George Mason +17.5 142.0 94% 64–76 ✓
UTSA @ Arkansas +24.4 154.3 99% 60–75 ✓
East Carolina @ South Carolina +11.3 136.1 85% 68–75 ✓
Oakland @ Youngstown State -0.7 123.4 47% 50–66 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ IU Indianapolis +0.1 141.0 51% 66–64 ✗
Virginia @ SMU +12.9 138.5 88% 51–63 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Southern Illinois +7.0 147.5 74% 70–73 ✓
Stony Brook @ Air Force +5.8 133.4 70% 61–69 ✓
Southern @ Tulsa -2.2 146.0 42% 70–66 ✓
Lafayette @ Mercyhurst -2.1 129.3 43% 77–73 ✓
Montana @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +12.1 150.6 86% 81–88 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Western Carolina +10.5 171.0 83% 74–68 ✗
Cleveland State @ Green Bay +9.6 149.6 81% 83–61 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Belmont +4.1 165.6 65% 79–82 ✓
Utah Valley @ James Madison +8.5 147.9 78% 61–78 ✓
Seattle U @ UTEP -0.2 139.1 49% 72–88 ✗
Florida State @ NC State +1.1 139.7 54% 74–84 ✓
Stanford @ California +3.7 155.4 63% 89–81 ✗
Washington State @ Boise State +9.7 156.2 81% 74–69 ✗
Morehead State @ Ohio +13.5 156.4 89% 76–88 ✓
Omaha @ Sacramento State +4.1 134.0 64% 70–60 ✗
Buffalo @ St. Bonaventure +22.5 139.8 98% 55–65 ✓
George Washington @ Old Dominion -11.9 146.8 14% 78–70 ✓
UNLV @ Creighton +11.0 144.5 84% 65–83 ✓
Hawai'i @ Long Beach State -4.9 133.7 33% 68–76 ✗
Villanova @ Temple -5.8 153.9 30% 94–65 ✓
Northwestern State @ Houston Christian -4.7 135.2 34% 64–57 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +6.4 137.9 72% 48–67 ✓
Grambling @ Pepperdine -4.4 139.0 35% 57–85 ✗
Idaho @ Oregon State +21.0 143.8 97% 62–78 ✓
Denver @ Portland State +8.9 165.1 79% 68–67 ✗
Butler @ Houston +13.0 134.1 88% 51–79 ✓
Texas Southern @ Sam Houston +11.4 158.7 85% 71–87 ✓
Lamar @ UT Rio Grande Valley +15.6 154.6 92% 84–52 ✗
USC @ Washington +8.0 134.5 77% 85–61 ✗
Binghamton @ Le Moyne +6.3 148.9 72% 72–62 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +20.1 138.9 97% 57–101 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.