Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | ORST -1300 IDHO +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +16 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | ORST -22.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -21.9 (-5.9) | 136.9 (+3.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORST -20.7 (-4.7) | 142.1 (-2.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORST -18.8 (-2.8) | 141.3 (-1.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORST -19.0 (-3.0) | 140.3 (-0.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#47) | -6.4 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#85) | -0.90 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#77) | -1.07 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#148) | 0.437 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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