Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -700 USF +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -14.7 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -15.0 (-13.0) | 147.2 (-1.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -14.5 (-12.5) | 145.9 (+0.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -14.8 (-12.8) | 145.9 (+0.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -12.2 (-10.2) | 145.9 (+0.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | USF 77 – 64 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 17-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#79) | -4.1 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#16) | 0.63 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.14 (#28) | 0.17 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#26) | 0.478 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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