Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | USF -115 LUC -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | USF -4.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -4.4 (+8.6) | 141.3 (-0.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -3.1 (+9.9) | 140.7 (+0.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -3.0 (+10.0) | 140.2 (+0.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -4.6 (+8.4) | 141.3 (-0.3) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | LUC 74 – 72 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#155) | 1.4 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#268) | 0.10 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#255) | 0.27 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#271) | 0.513 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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