Now she's with one of my good-time buddies, they're drinking in some crosstown bar. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
Sacramento State Hornets
60 70
FINAL Big Sky-Summit Challenge
Omaha Mavericks
The Nest · December 7, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SAC -1.5 Away covered
O/U 137.5 Under
Money SAC -120 / OMA +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total SAC win
Actual OMA +10 130 Lost
Massey SAC -5.1 (-15.1)
Massey Totals 134.3 (-4.3)
Bradley-Terry 69%
Weighted B-T 51%
Baseline Plus ML SAC -2.1 (-12.1) 134.2 (-4.2) 50%
Baseline ML SAC -3.0 (-13.0) 133.5 (-3.5) 55%
Baseline Tuned ML SAC -2.4 (-12.4) 134.4 (-4.4) 57%
Efficiency Plus ML SAC -1.0 (-11.0) 131.9 (-1.9) 44%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SAC OMA
Overall 7-25 22-13
Conference 3-15 13-3
Home 5-11 11-2
Away 2-13 7-9
Neutral 0-1 4-2
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L5 L1
Avg Pts For 63.3 77.0
Avg Pts Against 73.4 76.2
Massey -6.8 (#291) -7.1 (#296)
Bradley-Terry -2.21 (#333) -2.16 (#330)
W. Bradley-Terry -4.12 (#351) -3.17 (#333)
RPI 0.374 (#338) 0.382 (#330)
Shooting & Four Factors SAC OMA
FG% 40.5% 41.8%
3PT% 32.0% 33.0%
REB / G 34.6 34.8
OREB / G 9.6 10.0
AST / TO 0.85 0.98
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.1% 47.9%
TOV% 21.1% 18.0%
ORB% 27.3% 28.4%
FT Rate 20.8% 25.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.7% 55.0%
Opp TOV% 17.3% 14.9%
DRB% 71.1% 74.3%
Opp FT Rate 32.3% 24.0%

Game Analysis

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