Betting Lines
| Spread | SAC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SAC -120 OMA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +10 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | SAC -5.1 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAC -2.1 (-12.1) | 134.2 (-4.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAC -3.0 (-13.0) | 133.5 (-3.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAC -2.4 (-12.4) | 134.4 (-4.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAC -1.0 (-11.0) | 131.9 (-1.9) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-3 |
| Home | 5-11 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#291) | -7.1 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.21 (#333) | -2.16 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.12 (#351) | -3.17 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.374 (#338) | 0.382 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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