Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | DREX -170 PENN +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +13 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -10.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-31.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -9.3 (+3.7) | 135.0 (-28.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -9.3 (+3.7) | 138.1 (-31.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -8.7 (+4.3) | 141.0 (-34.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -9.3 (+3.7) | 136.2 (-29.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2025 | PENN 84 – 68 DREX |
| Nov 16, 2022 | PENN 64 – 59 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-8 |
| Away | 7-7 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#196) | -12.7 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#232) | -1.88 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#250) | -2.74 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#265) | 0.366 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.3% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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