Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | DREX -200 PENN +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +16 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -11.0 (-27.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -7.9 (-23.9) | 143.8 (+8.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -7.8 (-23.8) | 144.8 (+7.2) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -8.2 (-24.2) | 144.8 (+7.2) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -8.1 (-24.1) | 146.7 (+5.3) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | DREX 60 – 47 PENN |
| Nov 16, 2022 | PENN 64 – 59 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#193) | -5.9 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#236) | -0.85 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#202) | -1.11 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#292) | 0.384 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 43.3% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 34.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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