Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | DREX +130 PENN -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +5 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -14.2 (-19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -11.1 (-16.1) | 142.5 (-19.5) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -13.4 (-18.4) | 141.7 (-18.7) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -9.6 (-14.6) | 141.7 (-18.7) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2025 | PENN 84 – 68 DREX |
| Dec 7, 2024 | DREX 60 – 47 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#161) | -3.1 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#117) | -1.41 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#101) | -1.73 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#29) | 0.431 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 42.6% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 12.0% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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