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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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14–8 on winners spread MAE 8.8 22 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Samford @ South Carolina State	-5.1	161.6	32%	88–81	✓
Radford @ North Carolina Central	-2.2	146.6	42%	70–67	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Longwood	+22.8	145.7	98%	76–80	✓
Wright State @ Oakland	+2.3	128.6	58%	64–66	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+14.3	143.4	90%	65–68	✓
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls	-1.2	137.2	46%	64–67	✗
Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word	+2.6	144.8	59%	72–70	✗
Drake @ Valparaiso	-8.4	136.9	22%	66–60	✓
Jackson State @ Arkansas State	+20.2	144.3	97%	64–66	✓
Lamar @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+15.6	160.2	92%	65–61	✗
East Texas A&M @ Houston Christian	+1.9	134.1	57%	79–83	✓
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee	+13.7	136.1	89%	67–79	✓
Xavier @ TCU	+2.3	137.7	58%	72–76	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Davis	-4.2	161.5	35%	66–77	✗
Saint Louis @ San Francisco	+21.1	150.1	97%	61–78	✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Northridge	+17.0	154.9	94%	68–64	✗
UC San Diego @ UC Santa Barbara	+4.8	136.0	67%	84–76	✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine	+17.6	135.2	95%	66–82	✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Fullerton	+10.6	124.6	83%	73–56	✗
Delaware @ Duquesne	+0.8	149.2	53%	66–80	✓
Brown @ Bryant	+6.7	155.3	73%	76–75	✗
Siena @ Niagara	+3.2	134.1	61%	68–69	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.