Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | TCU -120 XAV +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -6.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -4.4 (-0.4) | 138.9 (+9.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -4.1 (-0.1) | 137.3 (+10.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -3.4 (+0.6) | 137.2 (+10.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -3.8 (+0.2) | 138.6 (+9.4) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#92) | 3.8 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#172) | 2.42 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#170) | 3.65 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#180) | 0.571 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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