Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ -170 DEL +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -1.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -1.5 (+12.5) | 145.9 (+0.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -1.3 (+12.7) | 143.9 (+2.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -1.3 (+12.7) | 143.6 (+2.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -2.5 (+11.5) | 144.1 (+1.9) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 16-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-7 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#293) | -3.0 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#338) | -0.27 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.70 (#318) | -0.54 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#330) | 0.455 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 40.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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