Betting Lines
| Spread | NICH -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | NICH -150 SELA +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +3 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | SELA -0.6 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SELA -0.7 (+3.7) | 136.2 (-5.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NICH -0.7 (+2.3) | 136.4 (-5.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SELA -0.6 (+3.6) | 136.1 (-5.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SELA -0.9 (+3.9) | 135.7 (-4.7) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | NICH 68 – 60 SELA |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SELA 67 – 61 NICH |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SELA 84 – 81 NICH |
| Mar 8, 2024 | NICH 80 – 54 SELA |
| Jan 10, 2024 | NICH 66 – 61 SELA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NICH | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 8-8 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#262) | 0.2 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#305) | -0.61 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#309) | -1.06 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#279) | 0.470 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NICH | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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