Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | TEM +380 VILL -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +29 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -4.6 (-24.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -4.7 (-24.3) | 144.6 (+14.4) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -7.1 (-21.9) | 144.1 (+14.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -4.4 (-24.6) | 143.2 (+15.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -3.6 (-25.4) | 144.3 (+14.7) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2025 | VILL 74 – 56 TEM |
| Nov 12, 2022 | TEM 68 – 64 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEM | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#118) | 7.6 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#165) | -0.06 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#166) | -0.26 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#141) | 0.513 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEM | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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