Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -275 MRSH +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -6.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -7.6 (+1.4) | 142.7 (+4.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -4.8 (+4.2) | 140.5 (+6.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -5.2 (+3.8) | 140.7 (+6.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -5.3 (+3.7) | 142.0 (+5.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | UNCW 70 – 69 MRSH |
| Dec 22, 2023 | UNCW 78 – 69 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 9-4 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#173) | -2.2 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#125) | -0.34 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#163) | -0.75 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#111) | 0.458 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 35.9% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 39.0% |
Game Analysis
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