Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH -110 UNCW +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +9 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -1.3 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -0.6 (-9.6) | 148.2 (-1.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -1.3 (-10.3) | 147.1 (-0.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -0.5 (-9.5) | 148.5 (-1.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -0.7 (-9.7) | 150.5 (-3.5) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | UNCW 70 – 69 MRSH |
| Dec 7, 2024 | UNCW 78 – 69 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#222) | 3.0 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#212) | 1.49 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#192) | 1.65 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#173) | 0.540 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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