Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | STMN -250 MONT +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +7 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -11.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -10.4 (-3.4) | 151.3 (+17.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -10.4 (-3.4) | 150.1 (+18.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -10.3 (-3.3) | 149.3 (+19.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -8.5 (-1.5) | 151.6 (+17.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2022 | MONT 78 – 59 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-0 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#83) | -1.5 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#134) | 1.76 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#110) | 2.65 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#163) | 0.619 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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