Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP -155 GRAM +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +28 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | GRAM -3.3 (+31.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -0.4 (+27.6) | 138.3 (+3.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GRAM -0.6 (+28.6) | 137.4 (+4.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GRAM -0.0 (+28.0) | 137.5 (+4.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GRAM -0.6 (+28.6) | 136.5 (+5.5) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-22 | 12-22 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-9 | 6-7 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#295) | 1.0 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#317) | -1.32 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.97 (#326) | -1.65 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#292) | 0.482 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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