Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -6500 UTSA +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +15 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -23.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -23.1 (-8.1) | 153.0 (-18.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -21.7 (-6.7) | 151.5 (-16.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -20.5 (-5.5) | 150.4 (-15.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -20.0 (-5.0) | 153.6 (-18.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#30) | -5.2 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#93) | -0.68 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#87) | -1.46 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#81) | 0.476 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 33.4% |
Game Analysis
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