Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | DAV -1400 CHSO +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -14.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -11.9 (-10.9) | 150.9 (-5.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -12.7 (-11.7) | 149.9 (-4.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -11.3 (-10.3) | 149.5 (-4.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -12.3 (-11.3) | 150.8 (-5.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#121) | -6.7 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#98) | -1.20 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#97) | -1.93 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#79) | 0.457 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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