Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +36 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -18.8 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -15.4 (+20.6) | 150.6 (+17.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -14.1 (+21.9) | 151.4 (+16.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -14.8 (+21.2) | 150.6 (+17.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -21.2 (+14.8) | 152.4 (+15.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 4-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#36) | -1.5 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#123) | 1.07 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#76) | 1.37 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#124) | 0.553 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 43.4 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 40.1% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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