Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -10000 LEH +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +24 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -20.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -19.4 (+4.6) | 150.4 (-2.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -17.7 (+6.3) | 152.4 (-4.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -16.9 (+7.1) | 150.9 (-2.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -21.9 (+2.1) | 147.3 (+0.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 16-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#57) | -5.7 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#75) | -0.49 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#61) | -0.76 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#105) | 0.493 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 18.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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