I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
Case Gym · December 7, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread BU -0.5 Home covered
O/U 138.5 Over
Money BU -120 / UALB +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total BU win
Actual BU +6 154 Won
Massey BU -1.3 (+4.7)
Massey Totals 138.8 (+15.2)
Bradley-Terry 24%
Weighted B-T 19%
Baseline Plus ML BU -1.8 (+4.2) 136.6 (+17.4) 56%
Baseline ML BU -2.2 (+3.8) 138.3 (+15.7) 59%
Baseline Tuned ML BU -2.3 (+3.7) 137.7 (+16.3) 54%
Efficiency Plus ML BU -1.0 (+5.0) 132.9 (+21.1) 50%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 30, 2023 UALB 8672 BU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BU UALB
Overall 16-16 17-16
Conference 10-8 8-8
Home 12-4 7-7
Away 3-12 8-8
Neutral 1-0 1-1
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 65.6 73.6
Avg Pts Against 68.3 74.8
Massey -6.4 (#285) -2.9 (#215)
Bradley-Terry -1.52 (#296) 0.49 (#128)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.99 (#286) 0.44 (#144)
RPI 0.422 (#297) 0.538 (#115)
Shooting & Four Factors BU UALB
FG% 40.9% 43.4%
3PT% 33.7% 32.0%
REB / G 36.0 29.4
OREB / G 11.0 9.4
AST / TO 0.80 1.00
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.9% 49.2%
TOV% 22.4% 15.2%
ORB% 31.4% 27.6%
FT Rate 19.8% 25.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.1% 57.4%
Opp TOV% 17.2% 22.4%
DRB% 74.9% 72.9%
Opp FT Rate 23.6% 30.9%

Game Analysis

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