Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | BU -120 UALB +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +6 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | BU -1.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -1.8 (+4.2) | 136.6 (+17.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -2.2 (+3.8) | 138.3 (+15.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -2.3 (+3.7) | 137.7 (+16.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -1.0 (+5.0) | 132.9 (+21.1) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2023 | UALB 86 – 72 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-12 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#285) | -2.9 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#296) | 0.49 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#286) | 0.44 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#297) | 0.538 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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