Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA -300 SOU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +4 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -2.7 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -0.7 (-4.7) | 142.1 (-6.1) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -0.3 (-3.7) | 141.9 (-5.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -0.1 (-3.9) | 141.7 (-5.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -0.8 (-4.8) | 142.3 (-6.3) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-9 | 11-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#304) | -0.6 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#266) | -0.27 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#257) | -0.38 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#286) | 0.508 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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