Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UIW -380 ETAM +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +12 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | UIW -8.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-30.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -6.8 (+5.2) | 140.3 (-22.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -5.4 (+6.6) | 139.4 (-21.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -5.0 (+7.0) | 141.9 (-23.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -4.3 (+7.7) | 142.7 (-24.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UIW 82 – 73 ETAM |
| Jan 19, 2026 | ETAM 80 – 58 UIW |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UIW 75 – 68 ETAM |
| Feb 20, 2024 | ETAM 76 – 72 UIW |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ETAM 71 – 66 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 3-17 |
| Home | 11-5 | 4-10 |
| Away | 4-10 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#269) | -9.2 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#302) | -1.79 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#275) | -2.51 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.367 (#345) | 0.411 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 42.2% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 24.2% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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