Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | NAU -120 SDAK +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +13 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | SDAK -2.9 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -1.0 (+12.0) | 153.8 (+23.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -0.3 (+13.3) | 152.7 (+24.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -1.1 (+11.9) | 155.6 (+21.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -1.3 (+11.7) | 158.7 (+18.3) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2021 | SDAK 76 – 71 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 86.6 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#289) | 1.0 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#210) | 0.26 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#245) | 0.08 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#243) | 0.502 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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