Betting Lines
| Spread | PRST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | PRST -400 DEN +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +1 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | PRST -8.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.4 (-30.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRST -7.3 (-8.3) | 156.3 (-21.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PRST -6.9 (-7.9) | 155.0 (-20.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRST -6.0 (-7.0) | 154.9 (-19.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRST -5.6 (-6.6) | 154.0 (-19.0) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#227) | -8.1 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#189) | -1.83 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#162) | -3.81 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#250) | 0.376 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.1% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 35.9% |
Game Analysis
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