Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | SJU -575 KSU +420 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +17 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -12.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -12.9 (+4.1) | 151.1 (+7.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -11.1 (+5.9) | 151.0 (+8.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -12.0 (+5.0) | 150.5 (+8.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -11.0 (+6.0) | 152.3 (+6.7) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 9-11 |
| Home | 19-0 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#35) | 4.8 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#67) | 1.25 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#48) | 1.96 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#62) | 0.548 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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