Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -550 USI +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +3 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -5.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -4.0 (-1.0) | 147.9 (-4.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -4.0 (-1.0) | 146.0 (-3.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -3.7 (-0.7) | 145.2 (-2.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -7.8 (-4.8) | 149.4 (-6.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2023 | SIU 81 – 50 USI |
| Nov 13, 2022 | USI 71 – 53 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 5-15 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#193) | -2.6 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#274) | -0.74 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#230) | -1.14 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#213) | 0.465 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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