Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -2500 USI +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +31 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -19.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -19.5 (+11.5) | 133.7 (-2.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -20.3 (+10.7) | 134.4 (-3.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -19.0 (+12.0) | 134.8 (-3.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -16.8 (+14.2) | 137.4 (-6.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | SIU 73 – 70 USI |
| Nov 13, 2022 | USI 71 – 53 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-5 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#86) | -9.3 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#168) | -3.47 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#134) | -5.28 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#151) | 0.413 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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