Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -115 UNT -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -4.9 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.8 (+20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -1.9 (+6.9) | 128.4 (+18.6) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -2.6 (+7.6) | 131.0 (+16.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -2.0 (+7.0) | 130.9 (+16.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -4.1 (+9.1) | 129.8 (+17.2) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 17-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 60.6 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#186) | 8.4 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#174) | 1.73 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#185) | 2.42 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#232) | 0.623 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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