Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 171.5 Under |
| Money | UAB -20000 PV +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +29 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -15.6 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 178.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -14.4 (+14.6) | 162.3 (-1.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -12.7 (+16.3) | 162.9 (-1.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -13.7 (+15.3) | 159.7 (+1.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -17.1 (+11.9) | 161.3 (-0.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-4 | 3-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#219) | -14.2 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#298) | -3.04 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#267) | -4.36 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#299) | 0.341 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 60.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 55.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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