Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -250 UVU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +17 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -8.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -7.2 (+9.8) | 142.8 (-3.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -7.2 (+9.8) | 144.6 (-5.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -7.4 (+9.6) | 144.0 (-5.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -9.7 (+7.3) | 140.9 (-1.9) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-1 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-0 |
| Away | 5-8 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#119) | -0.4 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#182) | -0.08 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#156) | -0.87 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#166) | 0.490 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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