I want the bomb, I want the P-Funk, I want my funk uncut. "P-Funk (Wants to Get Funked Up)" - Parliament
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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51–17 on winners spread MAE 10.0 68 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Illinois @ Kansas State -10.2 129.1 18% 72–64 ✓
Nevada @ George Mason +10.3 147.5 83% 88–69 ✗
Hartford @ Merrimack +4.5 125.1 66% 60–75 ✓
Lipscomb @ Tennessee Tech +1.7 142.5 56% 77–88 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ South Carolina State +3.2 137.1 62% 82–78 ✗
American University @ UMBC +12.0 141.2 86% 67–98 ✓
Louisiana @ Marshall +5.4 138.2 69% 79–93 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Maine +6.2 134.1 71% 64–56 ✗
Jackson State @ Indiana +21.1 130.5 97% 35–70 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ St. John's +26.6 160.6 99% 70–76 ✓
Wofford @ South Carolina +5.5 130.7 69% 74–85 ✓
Columbia @ Lehigh +8.3 150.3 78% 72–79 ✓
UNC Asheville @ North Carolina +16.0 160.3 93% 53–72 ✓
Rhode Island @ Florida Gulf Coast +3.6 138.8 63% 66–67 ✓
Long Island University @ Saint Peter's +27.9 146.2 99% 62–64 ✓
Central Michigan @ Bellarmine +7.9 145.3 76% 69–76 ✓
Virginia @ Providence +9.4 132.4 80% 58–40 ✗
Delaware @ Fordham +1.7 153.8 56% 81–71 ✗
Oregon @ Saint Mary's +2.1 137.5 58% 50–62 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Valparaiso -2.8 137.8 40% 64–61 ✓
Missouri State @ East Tennessee State -3.6 140.3 37% 76–77 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UT Rio Grande Valley -11.3 155.1 15% 67–72 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Wake Forest +18.2 145.8 95% 61–92 ✓
Omaha @ Texas Tech +22.0 140.3 98% 40–96 ✓
Illinois State @ Saint Louis +14.7 171.5 91% 76–82 ✓
Tennessee State @ Nebraska +18.3 146.0 95% 73–79 ✓
Cincinnati @ Arkansas -7.9 144.9 24% 67–73 ✗
Washington @ South Dakota State +13.3 162.2 89% 87–76 ✗
Gonzaga @ UCLA -10.7 162.3 16% 83–63 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Stanford +7.5 127.0 75% 65–79 ✓
Northern Colorado @ San José State +1.0 136.2 54% 74–75 ✓
Portland @ Portland State +8.8 135.9 79% 69–54 ✗
UC Davis @ Sacramento State -2.2 136.0 42% 63–75 ✗
Akron @ Evansville -1.9 113.2 43% 69–60 ✓
Milwaukee @ Yale +10.9 136.6 84% 56–69 ✓
North Dakota @ Florida International +18.6 139.8 95% 56–65 ✓
Long Beach State @ Wright State +3.8 165.0 63% 85–76 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ UAlbany +7.5 118.6 75% 62–64 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Michigan State -2.0 150.8 43% 61–63 ✗
Rider @ Bucknell -1.2 148.4 46% 85–79 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Campbell +12.6 122.7 87% 55–66 ✓
App State @ Vermont +5.3 115.3 68% 63–65 ✓
Southern Utah @ Bowling Green -3.5 153.4 38% 87–73 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ NJIT +13.4 137.8 89% 54–62 ✓
Central Arkansas @ LSU New Orleans +16.9 145.8 94% 63–90 ✓
Coppin State @ Canisius +15.7 138.3 92% 75–76 ✓
Stony Brook @ Fairfield +21.0 135.3 97% 78–83 ✓
Houston @ Oregon -12.1 136.6 14% 78–49 ✓
UConn @ Auburn -9.0 141.6 21% 115–109 ✓
Drexel @ Jacksonville State -0.9 132.4 47% 64–72 ✗
Murray State @ James Madison -9.9 124.2 18% 74–62 ✓
Idaho @ Cal Poly +10.4 138.6 83% 63–67 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Mercer -0.5 128.1 48% 82–58 ✓
Lamar @ UTSA +0.2 144.0 51% 73–79 ✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Michigan +4.2 149.2 65% 68–72 ✓
Saint Francis @ Cornell +14.8 157.9 91% 80–93 ✓
VMI @ Presbyterian -6.2 138.6 29% 54–59 ✗
Denver @ Air Force +11.8 123.4 86% 65–66 ✓
Fordham @ Rice -2.2 154.8 42% 84–74 ✓
Wisconsin @ Saint Mary's -8.3 123.2 23% 61–55 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Western Kentucky +18.5 138.3 95% 62–88 ✓
William & Mary @ Radford +9.4 118.2 80% 54–67 ✓
VCU @ Syracuse +1.8 125.5 56% 67–55 ✗
Utah Valley @ Nicholls -7.6 136.4 24% 74–63 ✓
Valparaiso @ Tulane +4.7 142.5 67% 68–64 ✗
Missouri State @ George Washington -9.6 139.4 19% 72–54 ✓
Seton Hall @ California -18.9 136.8 4% 62–59 ✓
Buffalo @ Illinois State -9.5 179.0 19% 106–90 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.